Westerosi Body Count: Intro and Daenerys

Welcome to Westerosi Body Count

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground. -- Cersei Lannister

As season eight of Game of Thrones approaches, it seems appropriate to review the prospects of the different characters, provide some analysis, and guess their fate. Westerosi Body Count will be a series of these analyses that I'll roll out as blog posts, followed by analysis of the hits and inevitable misses after the season starts. The only predictions I make with take-this-to-the-bank certitude is that there will be a significant body count and Theon Greyjoy won't win the Game of Thrones, though I think he's got a good shot at surviving. More on that in a future post.

One of the things that struck me about GoT as I thought about it a little was how conventional it is in some ways. That it's not obvious is a tribute to Martin and the HBO crew — they execute the familiar tropes very well. The two biggest conventions are you'll pay for your mistakes and what goes around comes around. Ned Stark isn't dead because he was a good or honorable man — he's dead because he incompetently threatened Cersei Lannister with no means of following through (after he squandered them). Big mistake. He didn't even know what the game was that was being played. Arya annihilated House Frey because those who would kill guests under their protection don't deserve to have or be a House. I would bet there is some Norse Edda that covers this in gruesome detail. I have not read any Game of Thrones sites that might reveal spoilers, etc., so if I guess right, it was just a guess, not something gleaned from a leak. So with that said, let's dig in. Thoughts and discussion welcome in the comments, but please, no spoilers.

Daenerys Targaryen

Daenerys seems to be the odds on favorite to win the Game. While like Ned Stark, she makes mistakes, unlike Ned, she usually corrects them. She's got dragons, 40,000 Dothraki screamers, 10,000 Unsullied, and her team of Tyrion, Ser Jorah, and Varys. On paper, that's unbeatable in typical Westerosi terms, but Winter has come and with it the Army of the Dead, so all bets are off. It's going to come down to whether they are going to finish it off as a comedy or tragedy, and if most of the season finales have been guides, it may be the latter. I think Daenerys is the fan favorite to win. If she does win, they're going to need some decent twist to make it not too pat. And if she does win, I'll go out on a limb and say it won't be with Jon Snow/Aegon Targaryen as her king.

As of today, my guess is she's going to die in Jon Snow's or Ser Jorah Mormont's (maybe Daario Naharis'?) arms, getting Jon out of his aunt-on-nephew karmic conundrum. It may be of wounds sustained in battle or assassinated by Cersei Lannister, but it's too early to make any guesses about that. At least, for me. If there is some detail I've missed, please LMK. An early tell will be if Varys gets uneasy feeling that Daenerys is not serving the realm.

BONUS: Your Game of Thrones Name

It may not obvious to people who only watch Game of Thrones that you can turn an ordinary name into a GoT name by changing an instance of i to y. Name Tim? Your GoT name is Tym. IDK why Daario Naharis doen't have a y up in there somewhere, but that's an exception to the rule. If I had to guess, it's because Daario Naharis only does what Daario Naharis wants, and if there are no ys in Daario Naharis, it's because Daario Naharis doesn't want them there. Rules don't apply to Daario Naharis.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.