04 April 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Theon Greyjoy

Theon's spirit animal: the nutria. This is a capybara, but close enough.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Lucie Hošová

Theon Greyjoy

Old Reeky McKilljoy. Even when Ramsay Bolton was hacking bits off of him, it was hard to generate much sympathy for Theon, so loathsome is he. Theon's not evil exactly as much he just always makes the (often obviously) wrong decision (for evil cf. Ramsay Bolton). I actually sided with Theon once when he came back and saved Robb and Bran from the Wildlings. Robb was a total douche in that instant. Theon's one undeniable talent is as an archer (recall him nonchalantly shooting down Frey ravens on the wing), so the notion that Theon would have "accidentally" shot Bran when he had a clean shot at close range was almost worthy of getting Robb's ungrateful outburst put on the GoT WTF page.

As bad as Theon has been, he's been slowly coming around and at least is aware that he's done some sketchy things, especially his killing and burning the two orphan boys in Bran and Rickon's stead. Once profoundly self-centered, he's increasingly suppressing his self for others, as when he supports Yara's claim to the throne and fights to rally Yara's men to and save her.

Yet, for all of the hints that the good may come out, Theon can never quite seem to get the redemption thing down. I expect him to redeem himself just enough in the end to survive, but he's still Theon Greyjoy with a little stench of Reek about him and he'll have to live with that.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

03 April 2019

Two (Three (More)) Things Game of Thrones Bungled

Works better when filled.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Susanne Karl

Game of Thrones is a great show — great characters, complex and compelling plot, rich and detailed costumes and sets in dazzling scenery, and dragons done right. But! (What was that thing Ned Stark used to say?) But, they threw into a couple of unforced errors which I will review here.

The "Death" of Syrio Forel

When the Lannisters started rounding up or killing all the Starks in King's Landing, Arya was training with Syrio Forel, First Sword of Braavos and Master of the Water Dance, who says "not today" to the God of Death. Meryn Trant shows up with four or five Lannister men, who promptly get knocked out by Syrio with his wooden sword. Meryn Trant, disgusted by the Lannister performance, moves in and after trading a few swings, cuts Syrio's sword in half. Syrio tells Arya to flee. He's staying because "The First Sword of Braavos does not run." Cut to fleeing Arya and you hear some screaming in the background, presumably Syrio's death cries.

"What's wrong with that?" you ask.

"Every damn thing!" I answer.

Syrio Forel is the First Sword of Braavos. Meryn Trant is a trumped up bum. The Hound dismissed Trant thus: "Any boy whore with a sword could beat three Meryn Trants." Bronn to Trant's face: "And you're a grub in fancy armor who's better at beating little girls than fighting men." You watch Syrio Forel mow down four or five armored men in seconds with a wooden sword, and you're supposed to believe the First Sword of Braavos loses to that grub Meryn Trant broken sword or no?

There are theories that Syrio Forel actually beat Meryn Trant, but Trant didn't confess out of shame in the defeat. You never hear him boast of his victory or tell the fate of Syrio, so I suppose that might feed into that line. Alternatively, it's been suggested that Syrio is really Jaqen H'ghar, which might have been cool. But a late reveal of either of these two scenarios would beg for yet-another-rant about unforced errors in Game of Thrones. No, we just have to be cranked and shaking our damn heads. Dadgumit.

Jaime Charges Daenerys next to Drogon

After the most amazing battle maybe ever in the history of shows, Jaime Lannister has the "cunning plan" to charge Daenerys while she's pulling the Scorpion bolt out of her fire breathing dragon Drogon. Well, maybe, that would be OK in some other story line. But it wasn't. It happened in the story line we got, which followed with a WTF-fest.

Bronn to the Rescue!

I love Bronn. He's one of my favorite characters, maybe only behind Arya and the Hound. Hell, he may be ahead of the Hound. He's up there. But there is no way in seven holy hells that Bronn is going to fricking charge Drogon and risk dragon fire after seeing the better part of the Lannister army burned to a crisp. OK, but say he has some secret loyalty that would cause him to risk dragon fire for Jaime (where he wouldn't fight the Mountain for Tyrion), what was the plan after knocking Jaime out of the way. Drogon has plenty more where that came from, and he can walk over and bite you, too. OR, did Bronn actually know in advance, that unlike most other lakes where the bottom slopes away from the shore that in this lake it's really fricking deep right up to the shore and it was his plan to knock Jaime into the water and avoid the dragon that way?

Really?

Walk/Swim across the Lake in Armor

OK. So Bronn knocks Jaime into the deep part of the lake that runs right up to Daenerys was tending to Drogon. Now what? Screw that! Let's just have them walking out of the lake a half mile or so from where they got in. It's hard to swim in clothes with shoes on. It can't be done in armor. So, did they hoof it along the bottom? If they could actually hold their breaths for three minutes while running at 10 miles an hour underwater in armor, that would "work", I guess. Or maybe Bronn just happened to bring a couple of Braavosi underwater rebreathers along with him, just in case. Maybe Westerosi can breathe water. Aquaman can, maybe they're like him? I mean seriously, WTF?

Westerosi Body Count: Arya Stark

Arya will roam wild and free like Nymeria — if she survives.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Michael Mazzone

Arya Stark

Arya is the most over-the-top and non-traditional character in Game of Thrones. That is, unlike Jon Snow who is the Hero with a Thousand Faces, Arya is an anti-hero who happens to have a thousand faces who is running around kicking ass and taking names and then crossing those names off her list by killing them, sometimes by the score. She is the High Priestess of the God of Death and she seems to enjoy her job. As such, I really have no idea what is going to happen to her.

If she can bring the world back to some sort of karmic balance by reducing her list to length zero, I see a couple of possibilities. One would be she gets whacked by Jaqen H'ghar or goes back to Jaqen H'ghar and is finally able to renounce her ego. Or, maybe killing Jaqen H'ghar and taking his place e.g., becoming Jaqen H'ghar. I just don't know how satisfying any of those would be, and it's not all that interesting. Another would be to take over Winterfell if Sansa were to die (which I think is unlikely) or move elsewhere like to Casterly Rock or King's Landing. She's a Stark and the only Stark left that both has the Stark name and her estranged but still living direwolf Nymeria. You know the Arya-Nymeria reunion at Winterfell would be a tear-jerker, although Nymeria has already turned Arya down in their last encounter. The one ending that would be satisfying and in character would have her into the sunset with Nymeria, Bronn, and Yara Greyjoy looking for fun and adventure. But that's not going to happen.

To date, Arya has really only been about learning to fight, perfecting her skills, and exacting retribution from her enemies by assassination. It would be disappointing if that's all there was to her, but I don't think we'll be disappointed on that point: she's going to be put on a quest to take out someone formidable. She's got some big names on her list — including the Mountain and Cersei Lannister — but I'm thinking even bigger: the Night King or maybe a dragon?

Once her task is done, however, she'll be expendable. As my favorite character, it pains me to make this prediction: Arya is going to die. It's likely to be Cersei and by some treachery. If Brienne can't beat Arya, she's not going to be beat in single combat, but maybe she goes down swinging like Syrio Forel? Well, the Syrio Forel exit was kind of bogus, how about like Benjen Stark? I'll be watching Arya with particular attention and hoping this prediction is off base.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

02 April 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Robin Arryn

Winter is Coming for Robin Arryn. If we're lucky.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Jedidiah Church

Robin Arryn

Winter is coming for Robin Arryn. We can only hope. This is a lighter post (I'm not predicting here, only wishing), and if we're lucky, we've already seen the last of Robin Arryn, the insufferable son of the batshit crazy Lysa Arryn, who Petyr Baelish mercifully (for us) punted out the Moon Door. If we're really lucky we'll get to see the bad boy fly, too.

One of the things I think anyone has to admit, is that Game of Thrones (GRRM and the HBO folks) has provided some of the most creepy, crappy, loathsome, hideous, hate-worthy verminous characters in the history of stuff that's (still) legal to watch or read. It was tough watching Sansa in the crush on Joffrey days, turning on Arya and Ned. She was terrible, but after a fashion she showed backbone and endurance that demanded respect even if it didn't foster affection. I'll take Game of Thrones scrogtoids for a thousand, Alex. Answer is: That thing that Robin Arryn contributes outside of creepy shithead annoy tf out of me factor.

via GIPHY

NOT A PREDICTION, but it seems if you want to see Robin fly out the Moon Door, you should have a "theory" of how it comes to be. OK, the Seven Kingdoms need stability after the mayhem they've seen with the War of the Five Kings and the war against the Night King and the Army of the Dead, and whatever mayhem comes after the Daenerys gets or doesn't get the Iron Throne. House Arryn and House Stark could be united if Arya marries Robin. Heh. They get married. When the revelers think the marriage is being consummated, Arya has Robin in the High Hall of the Eyrie. She drags him up to the throne and attempts to throw him out the Moon Door, but misses with the first shot. She hops down, drags him back up and hits the shot second time around, after which she can go roam Westeros wild and free like Nymeria. Varys claims the throne, which he immediately renounces to set up an Anarcho-Capitalist arrangement between the Hill Tribes and the people of the Eyrie and everyone lives happily ever after.

A summary of all original and current predictions (but not this one, because it's not a actual prediction) with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

Westerosi Body Count: Tyrion Lannister

Tyrion Lannister — the littlest Lannister is the most durable.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Christopher Keane

Tyrion Lannister

Tyrion wins by just surviving. I think he will, and I think that will leave him Lord of Casterly Rock. As I said earlier, Jaime's road to redemption can only go so far, but Tyrion is one of the most consistently honorable characters in the show, especially if you come at it from a libertarian perspective which sees his debauchery as non-coercive and thus at the very least karma mitigating. He twists arms, but that's limited to using his rivals' and other scoundrels' mistakes against them. The only real ding on him — and this isn't small — was killing Shea. In the karmic logic of tragedy, though, it was required and he has atoned for it by killing Tywin and being exiled. I think Tyrion is pardoned and restored to Casterly Rock in the denouement although what a twist if he remarries a Sansa who is happy to do so.

Might it really end with Tyrion married to Sansa? IDK Westerosi jurisprudence all that well, but their marriage might only be in need of consummation. Anyway, they were married once, and they could be married again. Moreover, it would make sense. What better way to end the conflict between the Starks and the Lannisters by marrying a Stark to a Lannister and joining the houses? I don't why I think this, but I think that if Sansa and Tyrion do wind up married, they will either be at Casterly Rock or Winterfell, and someone else will be on the Iron Throne.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

01 April 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Jaime Lannister

Jaime Lannister is doomed to be a sad lion.
unsplash-logoPhoto: Nathalie Spehner

Jaime Lannister

Jaime Lannister has developed into one of the more interesting and complex characters in Game of Thrones. He was introduced as an amoral, smug, over-confident, self-satisfied prick, but through the story he reveals that part of that is an affectation covering a conflicted man with a code of honor he tries to cleave to even as love and irreconcilable duties pull him in different directions. His Huck Finn moment came before the show started when he violated his oath killing the Mad King for the moral aim of saving the people of King's Landing from the King's wildfire. Jaime was fleshed out further through his adventures with Brienne of Tarth. Saving her from the bear pit showed his potential when he was at his heroic best, even if he's one handed.

It's possible, I suppose, that Jaime throws his that in the Game of Thrones ring — he's the elder son of Tywin Lannister, heir to Casterly Rock and the most powerful house in Westeros. He's had a change of heart about Cersei, and it appears that as with the Mad King, he's ready to turn on the person seated on the Iron Throne in service of what he sees as a higher moral purpose. But that doesn't seem to be in keeping with his character up to this point — he's never had any interest in the throne and the responsibility it requires. He's not playing the Game.

Jaime's fate is not to win and even if there is a happy ending for his path of redemption he's been following, his redemption can only go so far. I think the best thing Jaime can hope for is to be taken of Arya's list by some means other than death, but I don't think that this is likely. His longer term prosepects, though, may not be good if the story is to have him go out of the world with the person he came into it with. Jaime kills Cersei, the Mountain kills Jaime, the Hound kills the Mountain? That could go down pretty quickly, but I think it will be very late in the series, possibly the final episode.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

30 March 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Cersei Lannister

Can the Lioness survive the Game?
unsplash-logoPhoto: jean wimmerlin

Cersei Lannister

Ah, Cersei. To date, she's been the ultimate player of the Game, but this is a streak that cannot last. I guess if they wanted to go full tragedy, they could wreck all of Westeros and let her rule, alone, over a dead continent in ruins. If Cersei wins, then it surely has to be a Pyrrhic victory, as other victories of hers turned out to be. But I don't think she will win, because she just offers too many great opportunities in her departure. Arya really wants to off her, but I think either Jaime will take her out or she'll have to endure watching Sansa ascend to Queen and be stripped of land and titles, etc., and have to go live in a nunnery or something like that. It may actually be a combination.

Way back in Season 2, Daenerys has a waking dream of sorts in the House of the Undying where she walks through the Great Hall of the Red Keep — its roof destroyed and snow falling — with continuing service to a room with an alive Drogo and non-scaly baby Rhaego. The latter event never happened, so is it a "this is what would have happened" to contrast with the vision of "what she's going to get in return?" It's easy to imagine that King's Landing and the Red Keep get destroyed through some combination of Army of the Dead, dragons, Dothraki horde, self-immolation via wildfire, etc. Remember, too, that by killing the White Walker, you can automagically kill all the zombies the White Walker raised, so they can kill every damn body in Westeros, and still dispatch the Army of the Dead if they can just kill the White Walkers and the Night King. If Arya, with her Valyerian steel dagger, can wear the face of a White Walker, then the Night King is in some serious deep shit. Just sayin'.

If I were writing the story, Cersei would "rule", alone, over a largely depopulated Westeros — ashes covered in snow. But, I'm not writing it, and America doesn't do tragedy. Alas. This is how I think it plays out — Jaime kills Cersei at some point after having sided with Tyrion in some sort of act of redemption.

Cersei's Baby

Cersei is pregnant as we go into Season 8, presumably with Jaime's baby. Even though she shagged her cousin Lancel when Jaime was on the road, there's no reason to think the kid's not Jaime's and to have it mysteriously not would be (what Qyburn?) some pretty crappy writing, but, hey, they did the whole Jaime charges Daenerys next to the dragon (WTF?) and Bronn knocks him off his horse before he can get incinerated (WTF?) into the lake where the deep part runs right up to the shore (WTF?) aaand they swim a mile underwater in armor (W the seriously T the seriously F?). That was shark-jumping badness, so, anything is possible, but I think that was just an aberration, not a symptom of impending suckitude, in an otherwise pretty awesome episode.

Time is tricky in GoT, so I think Cersei's baby is definitely in play. A boy, that's taken as a ward into Sansa's court? Or, adopted as son to Sansa and Tyrion? They wouldn't have a pregnant Cersei if the baby didn't have a role to play. What would a daughter mean? Early flier guess — boy turned into a White Walker by the Night King.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

29 March 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Sansa Stark

Sansa Stark — the stalking horse in the Game of Thrones.
unsplash-logo Photo: Seth Macey

Sansa Stark

Jon Snow to Sansa Stark: "You almost sound as if you admire her [Cersei Lannister].
Sansa: "I learned a great deal from her."

Sansa Stark is the stalking horse in the GoT race. For a character who started out painfully irritating and naive, she has through great suffering and abuse acquired wisdom and cunning. Jon and Sansa have an uneven understanding, but each now hold the other in esteem and with respect. There is space for this relationship to develop (I don't think there will be any romance, just aligned interest and loyalty to the Stark family) and the woman for whom being the Queen of Westeros seemed all but certain in Season 1 may have a shot in Season 8. Lots of interesting possibilities especially if Queen Sansa has a hand in how Cersei Lannister is disposed of.

Sansa is not an easy pick, as she has some serious karmic flaws against her, including the loss of her direwolf Lady who by her lying she unwittingly sacrificed in the stead of Nymeria. Does that absolve her, or does that doom her? Hard to say. One of the signals that Sansa is going to play a role is her nuclear bomb of a sister Arya has returned to Winterfell with a hit list that doesn't have Sansa written on it. So, Sansa has means (Arya, Brienne of Tarth, Stark banner men (presumably)), motive (revenge at the very least, but she was queued to be queen Season 1), and now needs opportunity, which comes after the final clash with the Night King and the Army of the Dead or in whatever scheming and alliance building required to initiate that clash.

So, if Sansa does win, does she ascend to the Iron Throne alone? And if not, who stands beside her? She was married to Tyrion Lannister once — might she marry him again? That would go a long way toward cooling the hot blood in the Stark-Lannister conflict, especially if Cersei gets taken out. I think the Tyrion angle could actually work considering that almost all of the men she's dealt with have been schmucks to downright evil (looking at you dog-chewed corpse of Ramsay Bolton). Two that she (almost certainly) has come to see are not are Sandor Clegane aka the Hound and Tyrion Lannister. Despite the karmic drawback of not having a direwolf, Sansa is my early flier bet to win it all. Will hold off on the marriage to Tyrion for now, but recognize that it's really not all that crazy of an idea.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

28 March 2019

Westerosi Body Count Prediction Status Page

Character Will survive? Alive? Will win? Won?
Daenerys Targaryen No Yes No N/A
Jon Snow Yes Yes (kinda) Yes (different game) N/A
Sansa Stark Yes Yes Yes! N/A
Cersei Lannister No Yes No N/A
Cersei's baby Maybe Yes No N/A
Jaime Lannister No Yes No (not playing) N/A
Tyrion Lannister Yes Yes No (not playing) N/A
Arya Stark No (dadgumit) Yes No N/A
Theon Greyjoy Yes (WRONG) No No No
Yara Greyjoy No Yes No N/A

Overview

The above table contains pointers to my original predictions as well as any updated prediction based on new evidence as it rolls out during the new season. Explanation for the different fields:

Character
Name and link to original prediction
Will survive?
Current guess and link to updated prediction (if any)
Alive?
Is the character still alive as of the current episode
Will win?
Current guess and link to updated prediction (if any)
Won?
Final outcome
The Will win? entry needs a little explanation, as I have overloaded its meaning. For some characters, winning means winning the Game of Thrones, and as Cersei Lannister says, "when you play the game of thrones, you win or you die." However, not everyone is playing the same game. My early take is that Jon Snow is not playing, even though it kinda looks like he is as he's fiddling around on the edges, so as gamers might say different players have different victory conditions. Many of the characters "game" is just making it through the winter (they may not know of the Army of the Dead — yet!), so I won't call them out.

The table order is oldest post descending to the most recent which roughly corresponds to descending order of importance to the story as I intuit it. Not too much should be read into that, however, since some of the characters are grouped due to some association in the show.

Westerosi Body Count: Jon Snow

The Hero's Journey from The Gunn Center for the Study of Science Fiction at KU.

Jon Snow/Aegon Targaryen

Jon is the most traditional hero of all of the characters in GoT: noble youth separated from family, goes on quest, gets a mentor, receives a boon (Longclaw), dies, comes back, yadda, yadda, yadda, right out of the Joseph Campbell playbook. Moreover, it will be widely revealed in Westeros that Jon Snow is really Aegon Targaryen the lawful son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Targaryen neé Stark, which would put him in the front of the line for the Iron Throne if that's the way you want to see the situation (e.g., Robert Baratheon would not have, and Daenerys might not either). Certainly the neatest way to wrap it all up is just to follow the Campbellian Hero's Path leading to a restored Aegon Targaryen on the Iron Throne married to his aunt Daenerys (because that's what Targaryens do) and we are back where we started.

Back where started, here we go 'round again…

Problem is, it's too pat, and as much as fans love Game of Thrones, I don't think the GoTeratti would be cool with aunt marries nephew and lives happily ever after. Again, GoT cleaves to conventional themes even if it uses over-the-top exhibition. Inbreeding consistently gets punished through out the arc of the story (e.g., Mad King, shrinking dragons, Cersei's children all dying horrible deaths, etc.). No, I find it more likely that Jon will have to turn on Daenerys, and Sansa Stark may be involved. Moreover, Jon doesn't need to sit on the Iron Throne to complete a hero's journey and "win" if he's not playing the Game, but is on a different quest.

When predicting, it's incumbent upon one to predict. OK, we'll get to that, but we have things to consider first. A spanner in the works is Beric Dondarrion. Jon wasn't the first to die and come back. If you're not the only person to die and come back, then resurrection loses some of it's awesomeness, especially when it's just whatever the Brotherhood without Banners watches whenever Beric Dondarrion gets cut down and Thoros "Stinky McStink Breath" of Myr brings him back. Jon's status as "alive" is not entirely clear.

Consider, too, Maester Aemon's enigmatic "kill the boy, and let the man be born" advice given to Jon Snow. (HT Sistopher) This could be read different ways, the simplest being "grow up". But then Jon literally dies for saving the Free Folk/Wildlings. Jon is definitely a major hero, but is he Aragorn or Frodo Baggins? Or, is he Samwise Gamgee? The easy out is Aragorn — Ranger of the North, leading the Men of the West(North) against the armies of Sauron(Night King) and reuniting the Kingdoms of Arnor and Gondor(Seven Kingdoms). Aegon Aragorn — a set up or a Tolkien rewrite with lots of sex to distract you from the fact?

Before we can get to the punchline, there is another factor we must consider: Ghost. Of the original six direwolves, only Ghost and Nymeria are still alive (Sansa is the only Stark alive whose direwolf is dead, but more on that in later post). Does this mean anything? I don't think you gum up a story with direwolves with psychic connections to each other and their humans to have it all not really mean anything. The fate of Ghost will be a tell.

As I mentioned in the Daenerys post, I don't think the whole Jon and Daenerys thing can stand. Moreover, I think it ends in tears. In fact, Daenerys may die by Jon's hand. Think about it — the whole damn show is about Jon doing stuff he really doesn't want to do, and what would be more tear jerkier than Jon "I already had to watch Ygritte die in my arms" Snow having to kill aunt Daenerys and watch her die in his arms while making some weepy confession. Jon's may already be dead, so he doesn't need to die again, but I guess that depends on the as of yet unclear definition of death in GoT. Prediction: Jon's fate is to ride into the sunset Man With No Name style after some "mission accomplished" event. I don't think it is to sit on the Iron Throne. Better said, Jon Snow will not be the last person to sit on the Iron Throne at the end of season 8. The end of Jon's hero's quest wouldn't be to have to continue to do stuff he doesn't want to do like rule over Westeros. Jon wins by not having to do any more crap. Jon is Frodo dressed up as Aragorn.

Ghost

So goes Jon Snow, so goes Ghost, and vice versa. However, the story heaps all sorts of bad stuff on Jon, so I could see them killing Ghost and bringing him back to fight with the Army of the Dead, and Jon has to rekill his own direwolf. In this case, that's not necessarily the end of Jon — it frees him from being a Stark so he can ride off into the sunset.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

27 March 2019

Westerosi Body Count: Intro and Daenerys

Welcome to Westerosi Body Count

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground. -- Cersei Lannister

As season eight of Game of Thrones approaches, it seems appropriate to review the prospects of the different characters, provide some analysis, and guess their fate. Westerosi Body Count will be a series of these analyses that I'll roll out as blog posts, followed by analysis of the hits and inevitable misses after the season starts. The only predictions I make with take-this-to-the-bank certitude is that there will be a significant body count and Theon Greyjoy won't win the Game of Thrones, though I think he's got a good shot at surviving. More on that in a future post.

One of the things that struck me about GoT as I thought about it a little was how conventional it is in some ways. That it's not obvious is a tribute to Martin and the HBO crew — they execute the familiar tropes very well. The two biggest conventions are you'll pay for your mistakes and what goes around comes around. Ned Stark isn't dead because he was a good or honorable man — he's dead because he incompetently threatened Cersei Lannister with no means of following through (after he squandered them). Big mistake. He didn't even know what the game was that was being played. Arya annihilated House Frey because those who would kill guests under their protection don't deserve to have or be a House. I would bet there is some Norse Edda that covers this in gruesome detail. I have not read any Game of Thrones sites that might reveal spoilers, etc., so if I guess right, it was just a guess, not something gleaned from a leak. So with that said, let's dig in. Thoughts and discussion welcome in the comments, but please, no spoilers.

Daenerys Targaryen

Daenerys seems to be the odds on favorite to win the Game. While like Ned Stark, she makes mistakes, unlike Ned, she usually corrects them. She's got dragons, 40,000 Dothraki screamers, 10,000 Unsullied, and her team of Tyrion, Ser Jorah, and Varys. On paper, that's unbeatable in typical Westerosi terms, but Winter has come and with it the Army of the Dead, so all bets are off. It's going to come down to whether they are going to finish it off as a comedy or tragedy, and if most of the season finales have been guides, it may be the latter. I think Daenerys is the fan favorite to win. If she does win, they're going to need some decent twist to make it not too pat. And if she does win, I'll go out on a limb and say it won't be with Jon Snow/Aegon Targaryen as her king.

As of today, my guess is she's going to die in Jon Snow's or Ser Jorah Mormont's (maybe Daario Naharis'?) arms, getting Jon out of his aunt-on-nephew karmic conundrum. It may be of wounds sustained in battle or assassinated by Cersei Lannister, but it's too early to make any guesses about that. At least, for me. If there is some detail I've missed, please LMK. An early tell will be if Varys gets uneasy feeling that Daenerys is not serving the realm.

BONUS: Your Game of Thrones Name

It may not obvious to people who only watch Game of Thrones that you can turn an ordinary name into a GoT name by changing an instance of i to y. Name Tim? Your GoT name is Tym. IDK why Daario Naharis doen't have a y up in there somewhere, but that's an exception to the rule. If I had to guess, it's because Daario Naharis only does what Daario Naharis wants, and if there are no ys in Daario Naharis, it's because Daario Naharis doesn't want them there. Rules don't apply to Daario Naharis.

A summary of all original and current predictions with pointers can be found at the WBC Prediction Status page.

26 March 2019

First post! (In almost a decade)

If ever there was a time to get back to ye olde blogge, it is in the throes of the collective mass psychosis that characterizes the Age of Trump™. However, something more important than the Mueller report is bearing down upon us, and it calls for action—immediate action—and that is Season 8 of Game of Thrones. I'm planning on rolling out some predictions and possibilities for our heroes and villains in subsequent posts, but right now I'm not really what I think about this no spaces around em dash convention that's all the rage outside AP.

07 May 2010

(require 'cl)

Most, if not all, .emacs files I've read worth reading have (require 'cl) somewhere near the top.

30 April 2010

Ask Dr Aybabtu: How to make a Gnome behave civilly

Dear Dr Aybabtu,

I installed Fedora 12 and I can't get the mouse to behave properly. WTF?

Frustrated in Ft Collins,

Foo

Dear Foo,

Allow Dr Aybabtu a Clintonian moment without blue dress collateral damage: I feel your pain. Dr Aybabtu will not editorialize about the reasoning behind Fedora 12's removal of access to the One True Way of dealing with WIMP interfaces, namely that the focus follows the mouse. And no, focus does *not* mean changing the stack order, raising, or anything other than focus. Fortunately, you can put it back. From the mighty command line, issue:
yum install control-center-extra
You may need to sudo that, or do it as root. Then, navigate the Gnome menu thingie at the top of your desktop (or wherever the hell you've put it):
System->Preferences->Windows
Check the box labeled:
Select windows when the mouse moves over them
Under *no* circumstances check the box labeled
Raise selected windows after an interval
Surely madness and damnation lie down that path.

Whatever you do, do not seek advice about this on slashdot or other places on the interwebs, because you'll get answers like "use blackbox" or "I have Steve Jobs' sweat on my iDork and I will never ever wash it!", which may be interesting enough, but not the answer to the question.

HTH,

Dr Aybabtu